In this second installment of their 2026 outlook coverage, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, and Sonu Varghese, Chief Macro Strategist at Carson Group, dig into the parts of Carson’s midyear outlook, “Riding the Wave,” that didn’t make last week’s episode: fixed income, diversification, and global equities.
With the 10-year Treasury yield still above 4.5%, Ryan and Sonu explain why they believe bonds remain a useful portfolio backstop even in an inflationary growth environment that hasn’t been kind to them. They also make the case for diversifying the diversifiers, pointing to managed futures and commodities as ways to hedge against inflationary shocks like Middle East tensions and Russian refinery strikes. The conversation turns to midterm-year seasonality, with a reminder that August-through-October pullbacks of 5-8% are historically normal even in strong years. Rounding things out, they cover global equities, from South Korea’s blistering run and subsequent pullback to Europe’s steady financials-led breakout above 2007 highs, plus a quick take on the dollar’s staying power as a reserve currency and gold’s role as a hedge.
Key Takeaways
- Bonds still matter as a portfolio backstop: The 10-year yield sits above 4.5%, and while an inflationary growth backdrop hasn’t favored bonds so far in 2026, they remain a useful diversifier if the environment shifts.
- We believe diversifying the diversifiers matters, too, with managed futures and commodities offering a hedge against inflationary shocks like Middle East ceasefire risk and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries.
- Midterm election years historically bring August-October volatility, with 5-8% pullbacks considered normal even in years that finish strong.
- Emerging markets, led by a red-hot South Korea (COSPI up over 160% before a 25% pullback), have cooled after a huge first half, while developed international markets like Europe have quietly outperformed on financials and industrials leadership.
- In our opinion, the dollar isn’t losing its reserve-currency status anytime soon, but we believe gold and international equity exposure remain sensible ways to diversify away from it.
Jump to:
0:00 — Part Two of the 2026 Outlook
0:51 — Bonds As a Portfolio Backstop
3:05 — Diversify Beyond Bonds with Trends
4:58 — Midterm Season Volatility Reality Check
5:59 — Global Equities Outside the AI Trade
9:38 — The Dollar Call and Gold Hedge
10:40 — Final Takeaways and Signoff
Connect with Ryan:
- LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick
- X: @ryandetrick
Connect with Sonu:
- LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese
- X: @sonusvarghese
The views stated in this podcast are not necessarily the opinion of Cetera Wealth Services, LLC, or CWM, LLC. and should not be construed directly or indirectly as an offer to buy or sell any securities mentioned herein. Due to volatility within the markets mentioned, opinions are subject to change without notice. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Ryan Detrick and Sonu Varghese are non-registered associates of Cetera Wealth Services LLC.
A diversified portfolio does not assure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market.
Please note: Cetera Wealth Services, LLC is not registered to offer direct investments into commodities or futures. Instead, we provide access to this asset class via mutual funds, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the stocks of associated companies. Investments in commodities may be affected by the overall market movements, changes in interest rates and other factors such as weather, disease, embargoes and international economic and political developments. Commodities are volatile investments and should form only a small part of a diversified portfolio. An investment in commodities may not be suitable for all investors.
The return and principal value of bonds fluctuate with changes in market conditions. If bonds are not held to maturity, they may be worth more or less than their original value.
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